NFLX

Netflix, Inc.

235.44
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235.44
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Is Disney Stock a Buy?

Disney's (NYSE: DIS) stock recently rallied to its highest levels in nearly four months following its third-quarter earnings report. Its revenue rose 26% year over year to $21.5 billion, beating analysts' estimates by $490 million. Its adjusted net income rose 53% to $1.4 billion, or $1.09 per share, which also topped the consensus forecast by a dime. Those headline numbers were strong, but is Disney's stock finally worth buying again after underperforming the S&P 500 in recent years? Let's review its growth rates, challenges, and valuations to decide. Why did Disney underperform the market? Disney struggled with three major headwinds over the past few years. First, its cable TV networks lost subscribers to streaming video challengers like Netflix. That secular disruption forced Disney to pour billions of dollars into expanding its own streaming ecosystem with Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN+, but those higher costs squeezed its operating margins. Second, the COVID-19 pandemic curbed the growth of its theme parks and resorts while disrupting its theatrical movie releases. Sluggish ad sales throughout the crisis also hurt its broadcast TV business. As a result, Disney's revenue growth cooled off as its streaming costs surged. Lastly, new macroeconomic challenges -- including inflation and a potential recession -- are casting dark clouds over Disney's post-lockdown recovery. Furthermore, some investors still aren't fully confident that Disney's CEO Bob Chapek, who succeeded Bob Iger in early 2020, is right for the job. Disney's revenue growth is stabilizing Disney's revenue declined 6% to $65.4 billion in fiscal 2020, which ended in October of the calendar year, as the pandemic disrupted its core businesses. Its adjusted earnings per share (EPS) plunged 65% as it expanded its streaming ecosystem and racked up higher COVID-related expenses. In fiscal 2021, Disney's revenue rose just 3% to $67.4 billion, as the sluggish recovery of its theme parks and resorts partly offset its stabilizing media revenues. Its adjusted EPS increased 13%. During that year, the company generated 75% of its revenue from the Disney Media and Distribution (DMED) division, which houses its cable, broadcast, streaming, and theatrical divisions. The other 25% came from the Disney Parks, Experiences, and Products (DPEP) division, which handles its parks, resorts, and cruises, as well as its merchandise licenses and sales. Here's how those two core businesses fared in the first three quarters of fiscal 2022: Disney's DMED business stabilized this year as more people returned to theaters and it expanded its streaming platforms. It ended the third quarter with 221 million subscribers across all its streaming services, which matches Netflix's latest subscriber count and represents 27% growth from a year earlier. Its flagship service, Disney+, grew its subscribers 31% year over year to 152 million. At this rate, Disney could overtake Netflix in subscribers by the end of the year. The DPEP segment grew rapidly as COVID-related lockdowns were broadly eased across the world. All Disney theme parks have been open since the fourth quarter of fiscal 2021, and it gradually eased their capacity restrictions over the past three quarters. Those tailwinds should persist for the foreseeable future, and analysts expect Disney's revenue to rise 25% to $84.7 billion for the full year and grow another 11% to $94 billion in fiscal 2023. Its operating margins are rising again Disney's operating margin plunged from 21.3% in fiscal 2019 to 12.4% in fiscal 2020 and then dropped again to 11.5% in fiscal 2021. That compression was mainly caused by its streaming investments and COVID-era expenses and challenged the bullish notion that Disney could offset its streaming losses with the growth of its higher-margin theme park and movie businesses. But in the first nine months of fiscal 2022, Disney's operating margin expanded 390 basis points year over year to 16.5%. Its DMED operating margin still dropped from 16.8% to 9.8% as it ramped up its streaming investments, but its DPEP operating margin jumped from negative 1.5% to a positive 30% and easily offset that decline. That recovery indicates that Disney can still leverage the strength of its higher-margin DPEP unit to expand its lower-margin streaming business. Analysts expect Disney's operating margin to rise to 14.9% for the full year and then continue expanding to 16.8% in fiscal 2023. They expect its adjusted EPS to increase 68% this year and grow another 40% in fiscal 2023. It's reasonably valued and poised to recover At around $120 a share, Disney trades at 31 times next year's adjusted earnings forecast. That price-to-earnings ratio might seem a bit high, but it could cool off as Disney's profit growth stabilizes again. In terms of revenue, it still looks cheap at less than three times next year's sales. Disney could face unpredictable headwinds if a full-blown recession starts, but it's also bounced back from plenty of economic downturns before. Therefore, I believe it's still a great evergreen stock to buy -- and that it will outperform the market again once its revenue growth and operating margins stabilize. 10 stocks we like better than Walt Disney When our award-winning analyst team has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the newsletter they have run for over a decade, Motley Fool Stock Advisor, has tripled the market.* They just revealed what they believe are the ten best stocks for investors to buy right now... and Walt Disney wasn't one of them! That's right -- they think these 10 stocks are even better buys. *Stock Advisor returns as of August 11, 2022 Leo Sun has positions in Walt Disney. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Netflix and Walt Disney. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2024 $145 calls on Walt Disney and short January 2024 $155 calls on Walt Disney. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. Today’s Big Picture Asia-Pacific equity indexes ended today’s session mixed. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng ended the day down 0.21% and Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.88% while Taiwan’s TAIEX rose 0.20%, Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries gained 0.26%, China’s Shanghai Composite advanced 0.32% and South Korea’s KOSPI 0.42%. India’s markets are closed today to celebrate the Islamic New Year which marks the start of the year 1444 AH on the Hijri calendar. By mid-day trading, European equity indices are down across the board and U.S. futures point to a muted open later this morning. With little on the economic data docket today, the more than 350 companies slated to report their quarterly results will take the stock market’s reins today. Ahead of the back-to-back July inflation reports due tomorrow (CPI) and Thursday (PPI) and the impact it could have on interest rate hike expectations, it wouldn’t be surprising to see investor activity today more muted than usual, with the markets in a bit of a holding pattern. At 10 AM ET, President Biden is expected to sign the CHIPS and Science Act. It provides $52.7 billion for American semiconductor research, development, manufacturing, and workforce development. This includes $39 billion in manufacturing incentives, including $2 billion for the legacy chips used in automobiles and defense systems, $13.2 billion in R&D and workforce development, and $500 million to provide for international information communications technology security and semiconductor supply chain activities. It also provides a 25 percent investment tax credit for capital expenses for the manufacturing of semiconductors and related equipment. It’s not going to undo years of offshoring overnight, but it is a step in the right direction towards what we’ll call silicon independence. Data Download International Economy Readers should take a pause to enjoy the fact that there are no market moving economic data points being published today for the international markets. Tomorrow it’s back to business with a number of Consumer Price Indices being published. Domestic Economy The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index edged higher to 89.9 in July, up from June’s 89.5, which was the lowest reading since January 2013. 37% of business owners reported that inflation was their most important problem and 49% had job openings they could not fill. At 8:30 AM ET, the 2Q 2022 preliminary figures for Productivity and Unit Labor Costs will be published. Productivity is expected to be -4.5% vs. -7.3% in 1Q 2022 while Unit Labor Costs are expected to ease to 9.3% vs. 12.6% in the prior quarter. Markets The past few days have resulted in some relatively tame results for markets as investors wait for more updates on inflation and inflation-related economic releases. True, there have been some individual names that have shown earnings-related volatility like yesterday’s Nvidia (NVDA) negative pre-announcement, but for the most part, we seem to be tip-toeing our way toward consensus on Fed moves and their impact. Aside from the Russell 2000’s 1.01% return yesterday, markets ended the day almost flat as the Dow rose 0.09%, the Nasdaq Composite declined a mere 0.12% and the S&P 500 ended the day only 0.10% down. Here’s how the major market indicators stack up year-to-date: Dow Jones Industrial Average: -9.65% S&P 500: -13.14% Nasdaq Composite: -19.18% Russell 2000: -13.54% Bitcoin (BTC-USD): -51.01% Ether (ETH-USD): -54.16% Stocks to Watch Before trading kicks off for U.S.-listed equities, Avaya Holdings (AVYA), Bausch Health (BHC), Capri Holdings (CPRI), Ceva (CEVA), Emerson (EMR), EVgo (EVGO), Global Foundries (GFS), Hyatt Hotels (H), Planet Fitness (PLNT), Ralph Lauren (RL), Spirit Airlines (SAVE), Sysco (SUU), and Warner Music Group (WMG) will be among the companies issuing their latest quarterly results and guidance. With the anticipated grants and credits made possible by the CHIPS and Science Act, Micron Technology (MU) announced plans to invest $40 billion through the end of the decade to build leading-edge memory manufacturing in multiple phases in the U.S. Micron also shared that due to macroeconomic factors and supply chain constraints it has seen a broadening of customer inventory adjustments leading to softer DRAM and NAND expectations since it reported its June 2022 quarterly results. For the current quarter, Micro now sees its revenue at or below the low end of the $6.8-$7.6 billion revenue guidance it provided during its last earnings call. June quarter results at Global Foundries (GFS) bested top and bottom line expectations, and the company issued upside guidance with EPS of $0.59-0.65 vs. the $0.44 consensus and revenue of $2.04-$2.07 billion vs. $1.99 billion for the current quarter. For those unfamiliar with Global Foundries, its end market exposure is 49% smart mobile devices, 17% communications infrastructure and data center, 17% home and industrial IoT, 8% automotive, and 4% personal computing. While Blink Charging (BLNK) reported a 164% increase in quarterly revenue to $11.5 million that included a 154% jump in its Service revenue, its adjusted EBITA swelled to a loss of $15.6 million vs. $8.1 million in the year ago quarter. The company ended the quarter with $85.1 million in cash and 5,631 charging stations contracted, deployed, or sold during the quarter. Fintech company Upstart (UPST) top and bottom line consensus expectations for its June quarter and guided the current quarter below consensus expectations as well. Revenue for the June quarter rose 17.6% YoY to $228 million as its bank partners originated 321,138 loans, totaling $3.3 billion, across the company’s platform up 12%YoY. The conversion on rate requests was 13% in 2Q 2022 down from 24% YoY. For the current quarter, Upstart sees EPS of -$0.11 vs. the $0.20 consensus and $170 million in revenue vs. the $246.58 million consensus. Shares of insurance company Lemonade (LMND) soared in after hours trading last night after reporting its June quarter revenue and EPS topped consensus expectations. The company also reported a 31% increase in customer count YoY alongside an 18% YoY increase in premium per customer to $290. Lemonade issued upside guidance for both the current quarter and 2022. Shares of Allbirds (BIRD) sunk in aftermarket trading after the company slashed its full-year guidance and shared it would be cutting its workforce by ~8%. For the full year, the company now sees $305-$315 million in revenue vs. its prior guidance of $335-$345 million. Shares of Tyson Foods (TSN) fell as the company reported weaker-than-expected quarterly earnings and warned of supply constraints and reduced demand for high-priced beef. Tesla (TSLA) sold 28,217 China-made vehicles in July, down 14.41% YoY and 64.24% MoM. For context, wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China during July were 564,000 units, up 123.7% YoY and down 1.1% MoM, according to the CPCA. IPOs As of now, no IPOs are slated to be priced this week. Readers looking to dig more into the upcoming IPO calendar should visit Nasdaq’s Latest & Upcoming IPOs page. After Today’s Market Close Akami (AKM), Alarm.com (ALRM), Arlo Technologies (ARLO), Axon (AXON), Celsius (CELH), Coinbase Global (CON), Inter Parfums (IPAR), InterActive Corp. (IAC), Plug Power (PLUG), Rackspace Technology (RXT), Roblox (RBLX), SailPoint (SAIL), The RealReal (REAL), The Trade Desk (TTD), and Wynn Resorts (WYNN) are expected to report their quarterly results after equities stop trading today. Those looking for more on which companies are reporting when, head on over to Nasdaq’s Earnings Calendar. On the Horizon Wednesday, August 10 Japan: Producer Price Index - July China: Consumer Price Index, Producer Price Index - July Germany: Consumer Price Index - July Italy: Consumer Price Index - July US: Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications US: Consumer Price Index – July US: Wholesale Inventories - June US: Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories Thursday, August 11 Germany: Thomson Reuters Ipsos Monthly Global Primary Consumer Sentiment Index - August US: Weekly Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims US: Producer Price Index – July US: Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories Friday, August 12 Japan: Thomson Reuters Ipsos Monthly Global Primary Consumer Sentiment Index - August China: China Thomson Reuters Ipsos Monthly Global Primary Consumer Sentiment Index - August Eurozone: Industrial Production - June US: Import/Export Prices – July US: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Preliminary) – August Thought for the Day “When I eventually met Mr. Right I had no idea that his first name was Always.” ~ Rita Rudner Disclosures SailPoint (SAIL) is a constituent of the Foxberry Tematica Research Cybersecurity & Data Privacy Index Plug Power (PLUG), Allbirds (BIRD), Tesla (TSLA), Blink Charging (BLNK) are constituents of the Tematica BITA Cleaner Living Index Plug Power (PLUG), Allbirds (BIRD), Tesla (TSLA), Blink Charging (BLNK) are constituents of the Tematica BITA Cleaner Living Sustainability Screened Index The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. Today’s Big Picture Asia-Pacific equity indexes ended today’s session down across the board. India’s Sensex ended the day essentially flat, down 0.06%, China’s Shanghai Composite and Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries declined 0.54% and 0.55%, respectively while Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.65%, Taiwan’s TAIEX dropped 0.74% and South Korea’s KOSPI declined 0.90%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng led the way, down 1.96% on a broad selloff led by Health Technology and Health Services names while Transportation and Communications sectors provided the only relief. By mid-day trading, major European equity indices are down across the board and U.S. futures point to a positive open later this morning. At 8:30 AM ET, the much anticipated July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report was released: The headline figure for the month was expected to fall to 8.7% from June’s blistering 9.1% reading with core CPI that excludes food and energy ticking higher to 6.1% in July vs. 6.0% the prior month. The actual numbers show that inflation hit 8.5%, and core inflation was 5.9%. With the national average retail price for a gallon of gas falling through late June and July from its June 14 high of $5.016 per gallon per data from AAA, forecasters had expected the month over month decline in the headline CPI for July. The July Employment Report also showed wage inflation ran hotter than expected during the month. Let’s also keep in mind that we will be facing a “wash, rinse, repeat” cycle when it comes to inflation data and expectations for the Fed given tomorrow’s July Producer Price Index report. Data Download International Economy Producer prices in Japan rose by 8.6% YoY in July, compared with market forecasts of 8.4% and following an upwardly revised 9.4% the prior month. While marking the 17th straight month of producer inflation, the latest reading was the softest since last December. China's annual inflation rate rose to 2.7% in July from 2.5% in June and compared with market forecasts of 2.9% but even so the July figure marked the highest reading in the last year. The country’s Producer Price Inflation figure for July eased to a 17-month low of 4.2% YoY from 6.1% the prior month and less than the market consensus of 4.8%. Annual inflation rate in Germany was confirmed at 7.5% YoY for the month of July, down slightly from June’s 7.6% reading but still above the March and April figures of 7.3%-7.4%. The annual inflation rate in Italy slowed to 7.9% YoY in July from June’s 8% reading matching expectations for the month. While energy prices declined, prices for food and transportation rose at a faster pace. Domestic Economy This morning we have the usual Wednesday weekly reports for MBA Mortgage Applications and Crude Oil Inventories from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. At 10 AM ET, Wholesale Inventories for June will be published, and the figure is expected to rise 1.9%. While investors and economists will keep more than a passing interest in those reports and data, as we discussed above, it will be the July Consumer Price Index report at 8:30 AM ET that will shape not only how the US stock market opens today, but also expectations for the Fed’s next course of monetary policy action. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects domestic production of crude oil, natural gas and coal will all increase next year compared with this year. It forecast US crude production rising 6.7% to an all-time annual high 12.7M bbl/day in 2023 from 11.9M bbl/day in 2022, US natural gas output climbing to 100B cubic feet (cf)/day from 97B cf/day, and US coal production inching up to 601M short tons in 2023 from an expected 599M this year. The EIA also modestly increased its 2022 average nationwide gasoline price forecast to $4.07/GALLON vs. $4.05 if called for last month. It now also sees 2023 prices at $3.59/GAL vs. its previous forecast of $3.57. Markets Stocks continued in their holding pattern waiting for the latest CPI print save for some fundamental stories pushing Technology names and small caps around. The Dow and the S&P 500 were down slightly at 0.18% and 0.42%, respectively while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.19% and the Russell 2000 closed down 1.46% on the day. Energy names led the way yesterday but were overpowered by Technology and Consumer Discretionary sectors. Here’s how the major market indicators stack up year-to-date: Dow Jones Industrial Average: -9.81% S&P 500: -13.51% Nasdaq Composite: -20.14% Russell 2000: -15.83% Bitcoin (BTC-USD): -52.08% Ether (ETH-USD): -55.38% Stocks to Watch Before trading kicks off, CyberArk (CYBR), Fox Corp. (FOXA), Jack in the Box (JACK), Nomad Foods (NOMD), Vita Coco (COCO), Tufin Software (TUFN), and Wendy’s (WEN) will be among the companies issuing their latest quarterly results and guidance. At 9 AM ET, Samsung (SSNLF) will hold its Galaxy Unpacked 2022 at which it is expected to introduce new Galaxy foldable smartphone models, a new Galaxy Watch, and Galaxy Buds. Shares of advertising technology platform company The Trade Desk (TTD) jumped after the company reported quarterly results that topped expectations and guided current quarter revenue above the consensus forecast. The RealReal (REAL) reported a smaller than expected bottom line loss for its June quarter as revenue for the period rose 47.2% YoY to %154.44 million, topping the $153.99 million consensus. However, the company issued downside guidance for both the current quarter and 2022. Revenue for the September quarter is now expected to be $145-$155 million vs. the $164.3 million consensus; for the full year of 2022, revenue is forecasted to be $615-$635 million vs. the $653.7 million consensus. Shares of Coinbase Global (COIN) moved lower after it reported June quarter results that missed top and bottom line expectations. Revenue for the quarter fell 63.7% YoY as Total trading volume fell 53.0% YoY and 29.8% sequentially to $217 billion. Monthly Transacting Users (MTUs) grew 2.3% YoY but fell 2.2% sequentially to 9.0 million. For the current quarter, Coinbase sees the number of MTUs trending lower sequentially and total trading volume to be lower compared to the June quarter. Shares of Sweetgreen (SG) tumbled in aftermarket trading last night after the company missed quarterly revenue expectations, lowered its 2022 forecast, announced it will lay off 5% of its workforce, and downsize to smaller offices. ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES (IMOS) reported its July revenue was $65.1 million, a decrease of 19.4% YoY and down 7.7% MoM. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) reported its July revenue increased 49.9% YoY to NT$186.76 billion, which equates to a 6.2% MoM improvement. Electric vehicle subscription startup Autonomy placed a $1.2 billion order for 23K electric vehicles with 17 global automakers, including BMW (BMWYY), Canoo (GOEV), Fisker (FSR), Ford (F), General Motors (GM), Hyundai (HYMTF), Lucid Group (LCID), Mercedes-Benz (DDAIF), Polestar (PSNY), Rivian (RIVN), Stellantis (STLA), Subaru (FUJHY), Tesla (TSLA), Toyota Motor (TM), VinFast, Volvo Car (VLVOF) and Volkswagen (VLKAF). IPOs As of now, no IPOs are slated to be priced this week. Readers looking to dig more into the upcoming IPO calendar should visit Nasdaq’s Latest & Upcoming IPOs page. After Today’s Market Close Bumble (BMBL), CACI International (CACI), Coherent (COHR), Dutch Bros. (BROS), Red Robin Gourmet (RRGB), and Walt Disney (DIS) are expected to report their quarterly results after equities stop trading today. Those looking for more on which companies are reporting when, head on over to Nasdaq’s Earnings Calendar. On the Horizon Thursday, August 11 Germany: Thomson Reuters Ipsos Monthly Global Primary Consumer Sentiment Index - August US: Weekly Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims US: Producer Price Index – July US: Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories Friday, August 12 Japan: Thomson Reuters Ipsos Monthly Global Primary Consumer Sentiment Index - August China: China Thomson Reuters Ipsos Monthly Global Primary Consumer Sentiment Index - August Eurozone: Industrial Production - June US: Import/Export Prices – July US: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Preliminary) – August Thought for the Day “The release date is just one day, but the record is forever.” ~ Bruce Springsteen Disclosures Tufin Software (TUFN), CyberArk (CYBR) are constituents of the Foxberry Tematica Research Cybersecurity & Data Privacy Index Canoo (GOEV), Fisker (FSR), Lucid Group (LCID), Rivian (RIVN), Tesla (TSLA), Vita Coco (COCO) are constituents of the Tematica BITA Cleaner Living Index Canoo (GOEV), Fisker (FSR), Lucid Group (LCID), Rivian (RIVN), Tesla (TSLA), Vita Coco (COCO) are constituents of the Tematica BITA Cleaner Living Sustainability Screened Index The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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